How Bad Will The Coming Food Shortage Be?
The looming food shortages are causing quite a panic among the prepping – and normie – community. But are they as bad as we are projecting? Could they be worse?
We are going to do a deep dive into the data that we have right now to offer a more informed response to some of the hype. In short, we will see price hikes, and lack of access. But here in the USA, we are unlikely to see major loss of access.
Want to do your own research? Here are the articles I reference or used to draw my conclusions:
American Farm Bureau Federation: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bureau-survey-reveals-real-impact-of-fertilizer-availability-and-price
USDA Food Security 2026: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/food-nutrition-assistance/food-security-in-the-us/key-statistics-graphics
Reuters on USDA and Fertilizer: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-farm-secretary-says-usda-is-speaking-with-white-house-daily-high-fertilizer-2026-04-22/
American Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture on Exports and Imports: https://www.agfoundation.org/questions/does-the-united-states-import-more-agricultural-products-than-we-export
USDA on export and imports (including links to the excel sheets): https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/foreign-agricultural-trade-of-the-united-states-fatus/us-agricultural-trade-data-update
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20 Comments
Great video….but I think the reason people are freaking out isn't just because of fertilizer. Yes fertilizer will increase prices. But the West had a huge snow drought and farmers depend on that water for their crops. Also they are projecting that most of the US… including the Midwest will be in a severe drought.
When all the farmers go out of business we're screwed. So many of them are tired of this crap. Livestock rely on crops. The rich will be fine. Regular people just lose all their income to high prices
I know that some people live in food deserts – but I think the majority of Americans have SO MUCH food around them that the idea that anyone will go hungry is just really based in scarcity mindset/fear ruling thoughts. In my area, there are:
•three HUGE locally owned warehouses that are like the TJ Maxx of groceries – discontinued things, things that didn't sell elsewhere, things that are slightly out of date
•two restaurant-supply-style stores that sell retail (not just wholesale)
•two superstores with multiple locations that sell food
•two membership warehouse type stores with multiple locations
•a local grocery co-op
•7 grocers with multiple locations
•the Dollar Tree
•5 Below
•Sierra Trading
•TJ Maxx
•Ross
•Walgreens
•gas stations
•hardware stores
•a kitchen/cooking focused locally owned shop
•candy shops
•local spice shops
•an Asian market
•Mexican markets
•an Indian market
•our local food bank
•individual church pantries
•a locally owned volunteer-based "save it from the dump" 'grocer'
•even our local outdoor supply stores sell a variety of foods
It may (will 😞 ) get more expensive, and like you said, we may have to adjust what we buy, but the idea that we would just run out of food is so (thankfully) beyond the pale. Hopefully, if anyone is freaking out based on availability alone, this puts their mind at ease.
The plutocrats are already vaccinated for the next release
As long as farmers can get more Money exporting they will continue to do that even if we need it more in the states. Farmers have to go where the money is.
Six States grow rice. They produce 20 billion pounds annually. Why wouldn’t we be able to purchase rice?
How refreshing to hear a "prepper" who advocates kindness and generosity in these uncertain times. I am sick and tired of listening to the alternate prepper community talking about the coming zombie apocalypse and how everyone should keep an arsenal in their homes to protect their hoards.
I also don't feel like supermarkets will be empty, but some specific products will disappear and others will become much more expensive. Also they will offer again seasonal local products and people will have to learn to adapt to that. I am from another country and my parents grew up in a kinda poor rural area. They sometimes talked about how beans, rice, eggs, potatos and vegetables were the everyday meal and meat was something really special for special days (they didn't have a lot of access to fish excepting that on near rivers). Over the last twenty years I had the feeling I could not afford beef, so I just don't buy it. Fish has become pretty much expensive in the last 5 years, so I buy really small portions and I ration. You get great value learning how to cook, how to portion and trying just not to trash anything.
You talk in circles
Eat twice daily. No lunch if hungry bananas or peanut butter sandwich or apple snack popcorn balanced supper. Good breakfast Olde fashioned oatmeal ( not instant which is mostly sugar) 1% milk 1/4 tsp brown sugar 1 ORGANIC orange ( not standar. Hybrid orange as organic orange has 10 times nutrients) organic tomatoes soup instead of Ragu. Bread not buns. Hotdogs instead of hamburger. Hamburger with rice or cornflakes or lentils kneaded into meat. Hamburger instead of ground beef.
This sounds nice, but have you ever grown a garden and had a poor crop due to different soil needs? It's awful when the years before your produce was plentiful. Ask me how I know. That is exactly what happened to us last year due to the soil needs changing. And yes, all of the states are in a current drought except two of the states in the United States. Now will things get bad? I'm not sure. But we can usually import what we can't produce.
As a Brit living in France, your figures for Europe are over simplified – where did 50% come from?. The EU is over 100% self-sufficient (i.e. enough to export) in dairy, meat and cereals, importing 20-40% of seed oils and protein crops. France is virtually self sufficient while the UK imports a lot.
Great to see someone who uses data rather than rumors. Aside from stocking supplies, make sure your finances are in good shape if you can – pay off credit cards, don't make big purchases you can't afford, try to put some extra into savings, and so on.
I've already been feeling the pinch at the grocery store over the last year, so I've been taking a look at where I'm paying for convenience and making decisions about just how much convenience I need. Just taking the prices from a local chain store for example, sliced cheddar is $0.44/oz but a block of cheddar is $0.31/oz – sliced sandwich ham is $0.36/oz but a whole ham is $0.18/oz. (granted a lot of the whole ham is bone). I like ham and cheese sandwiches and I own a decent set of knives, plus I find the sandwiches just have more character/enjoyable when the slices aren't perfectly even. I made a fantastic pasta salad with cubes of ham and cheese, peas, shredded carrots, and a variety of other ingredients from my pantry. I'm going to make a big pot of ham and bean soup this weekend and come up with some recipes that will freeze well. I'm breaking my daily menus up with other proteins but buying that one ham post-Easter saved me a ton of money from my usual grocery bills for a few weeks.
I look for sales the day after holidays – hot dogs and hamburgers, after Memorial Day or on the 5th of July, turkey on the day after Thanksgiving and so on. I'm also doing some planting this weekend. It won't be a full "victory garden", but some leaf lettuce and tomatoes outside with some green onions and herbs in my kitchen window.
When the starving kids next door know you are munching on protein bars how will you feel? Good luck with that answer because peppers I know are Christians.
7:13 bananas
The US will see shortages on what it doesn't produce, supermarkets will remain full because it will have lots of food most people can't afford, creating the illusion of excess.
I just want to first of all say we dident eat breakfast before Rothschild said thats something everybody has to do to stay healthy. most human dident eat lunch ether We ate dinner thats it. Even in older days we dident eat every day.the way of eating we do today make us sick.
I’m not sure where you are but your prices are way off!!
I'm worried our electricity will be hit. Imagine not having the freezers, fridges, Internet…all shipping would cease until everyone started using landline phones again. That could slow down food production and shipping. Hope 🙏 we have enough.
I was kind of panicking.
I couldn't order everything I wanted online anymore.
The problem was the shipping of the order.
Almost 40% of the world's oil and gas production has already been destroyed.
In addition to the wars, oil ports have been destroyed in Australia,
India and Texas. In addition, around 20 oil tankers have been burned in Myanmar and one in the Panama Canal.
Why?
The world needs over 100 million barrels of oil per day and now stocks are dwindling.
Here in the EU, there is only enough jet fuel for about five weeks.
Norway only produces 20% of the EU's oil needs
and 40% of the gas needs.
It seems that the world is being deliberately put into a serious energy crisis.
However,
there can be no war without oil and gas.